Apr 18, 2007

Educating Rahul Gandhi

A few truths for Rahul and a look at his future.


The desperation on Rahul Baba’s face is showing. After all he has to revive his moribund Party in the caste-ridden state of Uttar Pradesh if he and his family have to carry on their family business. Every other day Rahul Baba gives the praja of India lessons in Indian history. His first lesson was on the politics of Babri Masjid/Ram Mandir issue. According to him had a Gandhi been active in politics in 1992, the Babri Masjid wouldn’t have been demolished. Its hard to believe him after all that his Dad did to see the Mandir replace the Masjid. Or maybe he was right. But shouldn’t we also focus on why did the then PM late PV Narasimha Rao accept the then UP CM Kalyan Singh’s assurance of safeguarding the Masjid and didn’t proactively take steps to protect the Masjid by imposing president rule in UP?


Today looking back to those days then one way the demolition of the Masjid has been a blessing in disguise for the country. Let me explain.


In 1991 satellite television beamed live the Gulf War into our living rooms and thus the satellite television revolution hit India. Today India has the most number of satellite news channels who are constantly on the lookout for captivating news to drive their TRPs northwards. Just imagine the political capital the Sangh Parivar would have made year after year by holding public meetings in front of the Masjid where rabblerousing speeches are delivered with the Masjid being described as an eyesore standing on the birthplace of Lord Ram. Would the satellite new channels let go of an opportunity to drive their TRPs northwards by not telecasting the meetings? I am of the opinion that PVN foresaw the power of Satellite television and saved at least South India from Hindutva forces by his ‘inaction’ in December 1992. Today some states in the South are more than 80% cabled.


With the Masjid demolished the Sangh Parivar lost the object of hate they so loved to deride and use to whip up communal passions in otherwise sedate Hindu men and women. Moreover, the PVN govt had started to unshackle an economy that was chained up by the Nehru-Gandhi Dynasty. A free market economy cannot succeed in an environment of strife and mayhem. IMO it is because of the demolition of the Masjid in 1992 that the BJP never crossed 190 Lok Sabha seats till today and thus was unable to turn rest of India into the lab of Hindutva as they had done to Gujarat. So if Rahul Baba’s Congress Party is ruling at the Center today, in a way he can thank late PVN for facilitating it by bottling the genie his Dad let out when he opened the locks of the Masjid and allowed Shilanyas thus legitimising BJP’s Ram Mandir Movement.


At Rahul Baba’s second teaching session the praja were subjected to a barrage of new theories on the freedom movement, Bangladesh liberation war, and India’s economic renaissance.


The arrogance emanating out of being born with a "power spoon" in his mouth is clearly evident in Rahul Baba statements. Someone tell him it is the Gujju Gandhi who is the father of this nation and not the Kashmiri Nehru who just happened to be Bapu’s favourite. Someone please tell Rahul Baba that Albert Einstein once wrote: “generations to come, it may be, will scarce believe that such one as this ever in flesh and blood walked upon this earth" about the half-naked fakir. No one wrote anything like that about his great-grandfather.


Someone tell Rahul Baba that the British didn’t transfer India to the Nehru-Gandhi Dynasty as their private jagir (estate). Millions of nameless Indians heeded the call of the Mahatma for nonviolent struggle against the British rule. Millions braved the lathis and bullets as they faced the mightiest empire on the planet. Others like Bagat Singh, Azad, Bose, etc felt this ideology was kaput and violent revolution was their chosen path to freedom. At the time of independence the Mahatma - whose word was sacrosanct in the INC - was adamant on making Nehru India’s first Prime Minister. This was the only reason why this country fell into the hands of the Nehru–Gandhi dynasty despite severe opposition in the INC itself to his candidature.


Then Rahul Baba’s next lesson was on how Indira Gandhi divided Pakistan. Someone please tell Rahul Baba that the liberation of Bangladesh and thus dismembering of Pakistan was not anything that was planned and executed by Indira Gandhi a la Musharraf’s Kargil fiasco. Even school kids know that Indira Gandhi only exploited Pakistan’s mishandling of the crisis in East Pakistan. With 93,000 Pakistani POWs and good chunks of West Pakistani territory in hand, Indira had another chance to correct her father’s biggest blunder but she being her father’s daughter lost what the Indian army had won on the battlefield on the negotiating table that too on a mere verbal promise by Bhutto. Rahul would like to remember that Indian Muslims he is assiduously trying too woo were never really for the creation of Bangladesh. With this claim he might have just pissed of those Muslims who were falling for his charms in the UP elections.


Now looking back, has interfering in Pakistan’s internal affairs done any good to us? This mail in "The Hindu" is revealing:


It was a pyrrhic victory for India in the 1971 war if one considers its long-term consequences. Earlier, India had to deal with only one enemy whose eastern wing was its Achilles' heel. In 1971, it relieved the Pakistani military establishment of the onerous burden of safeguarding its east and enabled it to focus on Kashmir. We are now in an unenviable position of having to deal with independent but inimical states on both our flanks.[The Hindu]



On a lighter note today India would have been playing in the Cricket World Cup Super 8’s in the Windies if Bangladesh weren’t around.


Then Rahul Baba took lessons on India’s economy. Now this coming from someone who can’t even calculate correctly the average growth rate of India minus Uttar Pradesh is hard to digest. If only someone told this guy about the nearly irreparable damage done to this nation’s economy particularly to the economy of the BIMARU states by the Nehru-Gandhi Dynasty’s retarded economic policies.


Rahul Gandhi’s Future


Now lets look at the Congress and Rahul’s future. The question is whether Rahul Gandhi can ever lead the Congress on its own or as part of a coalition to power and become India’s PM? I am of the firm view that never ever will a Gandhi from the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty win a mandate and sit on the PM’s chair. Let me explain.


For sometime now the Congress has been steadily losing one vote bank after the other especially in the highly populated North India. Mandal and Mandir gifted the upper caste vote to the BJP. BSP took away the Dalit vote and a demolished Masjid gifted the Muslim vote to SP, BSP, RJD, etc.


As the Congress declined in the North, the ascendant BJP was inching closer to power at the Center with help of regional parties. BJP that had built its vote bank on the divisive Ram Mandir issue, just couldn’t fulfill its main promise of building a Ram Mandir at Ayodhya despite being in power for more than six years. Nor did it deliver on its other pet issues like Article 370, UCC, etc. Moreover, India’s most humiliating events occurred during BJP’s rule – the Kandahar humiliation, Parliament attack, etc. All these resulted in disillusionment among the upper castes who rejected the BJP in the general elections of 2004.


Another reason why BJP lost power in 2004 was because of the tactical voting by the Muslims who were undoubtedly rattled by the state sponsored Gujarat riots. Their only aim was to defeat BJP at any cost. In UP where the BJP was hoping to win 50-60 LS seats had to contend with 10 seats. The UP Muslims voted en bloc for the Samajwadi Party in order to defeat BJP.


In the state elections of 2003 BJP won a landslide in three of the four states not only because of the anti-incumbency factor but also because BSP had cut into Congress’s sizable Dalit vote in MP and Rajasthan resulting in Congress losing a large number of seats to the BJP.


Once BSP has the Dalit vote it never returns to Congress. This fact the Congress Party is yet to comprehend. The latest loss was in the Delhi Municipal elections where the BSP won 15 seats and due to vote cutting the Congress lost 60-65 seats to the BJP.Be it Delhi, Punjab, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, etc the sizable Dalit vote is fast slipping out of the Congress hands and it has no strategy to contain the flow.


Right now the Congress Party is on a single-point agenda of reviving its Muslim vote bank so the person who humiliated Sonia Gandhi bites the dust in Uttar Pradesh. In its zeal to see Mulayam’s end, the Congress party had thrown the national interest to the wind. By appeasing Muslims at the cost of national interest and the OBCs at the cost of upper castes, it hope to take away Mulayam’s vote bank of Yadavs and Muslims. But poll signals emanating from UP and elsewhere is not supporting this. Rather, the Congress has lost seat after seat to BJP, BSP, SP, etc since 2004 general elections.


IMO the 2008 state elections will be the break or make election for the Congress Party and Rahul Gandhi in North India. If anti-incumbency can get Congress some votes then BSP will ensure Congress losing Dalit votes resulting in BJP’s return to power in Rajasthan and MP. Delhi is already out of Congress hands. The way things are in Chattisgarh the Congress has a chance there if they can exploit the tribal disillusionment.


Now coming to South India, Congress is still in the reckoning in Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Pondicherry. In Tamil Nadu it has been reduced to BJP’s level in Andhra Pradesh.


In South India BJP has been able to make a mark only in Karnataka that too after flogging the divisive “Ayodhya of South” dispute.


In Andhra, BJP had to be content with the breadcrumbs thrown at them by the Telugu Desam Party. After the electorate voted out TDP mainly because of its support to BJP at the center even after Gujarat riots, the TDP has rightly cut all ties with BJP. It is only a matter of time before Chandrababu Naidu is back in power with the vote of all sections of the people of Andhra Pradesh. Now it is up to the Muslims of Andhra Pradesh not to play into the hands of Sanghis by indulging in stupid anti-national/pan-islam activities. We need peace in Andhra Pradesh to realise the vision of Chandrababu Naidu at a faster pace.


The rest of South Indian Muslims too should realise that the BJP can only grow in South India if they can find any communal situation to exploit and it is up to them not to create any such situation. After fifteen years of economic liberalisation, South India has emerged as the economic powerhouse of India. Lets take this chance and prosper together.


Looking forward to 2009 general elections, the Congress with its Muslim/OBC-appeasing agenda having driven the upper-castes back into BJP’s hands and with no clue on how to handle the economy, which in turn is driving the rest of its vote bank away will find it a Herculean task to win even 25 seats in North India. In South, West and NE India the picture in 2009 will be equally bleak due to the anti-incumbency factor in TN, AP, Assam, Maharashtra and Pondicherry, etc


It remains to be seen whether the present PM Manmohan Singh will be replaced with Rahul Gandhi anytime during the remaining tenure of the UPA govt. Other than that there is no way Rahul Gandhi will ever become India’s PM.


If Mayawati is able to provide a credible alternative to the Congress and the BJP in 2009, IMO many regional parties that are supporting the Congress or BJP today will be open to ally with BSP with Behenji as the Prime Ministerial candidate.

3 comments:

Prudent Indian said...

Ssssssshhhhhhhhhh!He is future of India."Do know you're King".
PI.

Nitin said...

RS,

Nice post. I wonder if you could separate out the normative bits from the positive bits. In other words, differentiate what you think should happen, from what is actually going on.

Chandra said...

I am not sure about Rahul never becoming the PM - all congress has to do is win a majority in its coalition to prop up the family and if Rahul makes to much of an ass of himself, there is another sibling.

Also, I'm sure Rahul and his speech writers know exactly what they are doing - placing him in line for the top position after Manmohan and undermining any aspiring leaders in Congress I to challenge Nehru family anytime in near future.